Mar 8, 2018 – Market Update (ECB bit hawkish, tomorrow’s US NFPs’ earnings bit weaker can push EURUSD above 1.2500; EURUSD weekly – a funny joke 1998-2000; Fed- 5 hikes in 2018?; S&P 500 still a bit rich but reasonably attractive; USD and US deficit correlating as before dot.com bubble; USD decline impacting reserve currency status; Aramco IPO going against OPEC?)

Mr Price Action/ March 8, 2018/ Market Update, Market Update Posts/ 0 comments

 

Short recap

Asia in green after strong US session yesterday

On Trump softer on tariffs – but do not get mislead by risk on mood

Europe opening flat to higher

 

ECB today likely to confirm a gradual shift

But still not major change in wording

Draghi to talk down any hawkish views despite strong EZ economy

 

Fed 4 hikes warranted, eventually 5 in 2018 according to DB Securities

Trump’s tariffs plan not signed yet (today?)

Canada & Mexico exempt temporarily

11 members to sign TPP (US withdrew from the deal)

Beige Book – prices rising, employment up moderately

 

Equities

RenaultNissanMitsubishi alliance getting stronger

Some Goldman Sachs’ employees on notice to move to Frankfurt amid Brexit uncertainty

IKEA to keep up investments

Boeing – tariffs unlikely to impact plane prices but can hurt sales strongly

General Electric still under pressure, valued at USD 125 bln (while in Jan 2018 at USD 580 bln)

 

S&P 500 still a bit rich after recent correction

But at reasonable to attractive levels based on P/B, P/E or dividend yield relative to 10-yr Trys yield (2.88%)

Improving earnings expectations and excess capital being returned to shareholders are supportive as well

Huge risks is coming from US economy bleeding from trade/tariffs war

Tech, financials, industrial doing the best

 

S&P 500

Strong resistance around 2800 level (high + 76.4% Fibo at 2795)

Resistance 2744 (61.8% Fibo), 2742 (50 DMA) and 2735

Support 2703 (50.0% Fibo), 2677 (100 DMA), 2663 (38.2% Fibo) and 2671

Source: Saxo Bank

 

DAX

Strong resistance around 12 745

Resistance 12 275 (76.4% Fibo & 10 DMA), 12 528 (61.8% Fibo)

Strong support 11 866

Source: Saxo Bank

 

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.88% vs 2.86% yesterday

10-yr Bund yield at 0.66% vs 0.68% yesterday

 

Interest rates are moving for the right reasons

This chart warns that the 30-year downtrend in interest rates may be over  link

 

USD following the US deficits again (budget and trade balance)

Remember the end of dot.com bubble? Quite similar….

 

How Corporate Debt Confirms The “Everything Bubble”  link

 

EURUSD

Resistance is fairly in place around 1.2555

Today a bit of sense of hawkishness from ECB and…

…tomorrow bit of weakness in earnings can push EUR above 1.2500

USD reaction to US tariffs will show further direction

Support 1.2318 (23.6% Fibo & 10 DMA), 1.2172 (38.2% Fibo), 1.2268 (10 DMA)

 

Weekly – anyone having fun with this chart?

 

Source: Saxo Bank

 

…but a Dollar decline rekindles reserve currency worries  link

 

Crude oil

Is Aramco share sale distorting OPEC policy?  link

OPEC cuts played well so far but the cost is losing market share to US shale

 

U.S. Oil Output Set to Average 10.7 Million Barrels a Day in 2018, Highest on Record  link

2018 oil output forecast to average 10.7 million barrels a day

Production expected to top 11 million barrels a day in October

 

Cryptos

SEC urging cryptocurrency exchanges to register

 

Data/events

 

ECB

Fri

BoJ meeting

US NFPs

 

Mar 12/13 – US bond auctions (10-/30- yr maturities)

Mar 21 – FOMC meeting (1 hike expected (market pricing at 86%) and 3 more in 2018 to be announced)

Mar 23 – US Fed gov spending deadline

 

 

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

 

Good luck Champs!

 

Mr Hawk

 

 

 

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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