GOLD (Daily) – Shadows over golds future… at least medium term
The spectacular rally since last August completely ran out of steam. The uptrend line btw Nov. and Jan. low was broken (with significant bearish pressure – weekly engulfing ) and the subsequent rally hit the wall at $1320 and a lower high was created… Now the next hurdle for bears is the apparently strong $1280 level which equals to 38.2% from the top of the rally where a well-tested demand zone lies at $1275-1286 (likely not a coincidence :-). So what’s next…?
It seems the set up for a bearish reversal is almost ideal, so let’s look purely at the Technicals, ignoring the noise from the media, and play short. For this in my opinion we need the gold to close below the demand zone $1275-1286 where we can load half of our shorts with a stop limit and the second half after the daily/weekly close. Or we can wait the gold to retest $1275 after the break and sell at resistance which we could reach in a few weeks’ time. Stops I would place above the zone in both cases targeting 1236-55.
If this not works or you feel more bullish, well there is also a chance the market will bounce again from the demand zone. It did a couple of times before so why not now… then the bulls will try to reignite the rally from last year again. This potential buying activity could lead the gold price all the way up to test $1350 again. With a tight stop below 1270 not a bad risk reward if you ask me…
Remember to stay consistent and manage your risk
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