Category Archives: Market Update Posts

EURUSD – Might be under pressure on Italian budget crisis

Mr Hawk/ November 13, 2018/ Chart Of The Day, Charts Posts, Market Update, Market Update Posts/ 0 comments

This note is an addition to our earlier view available here. As the situation with Italian budget is getting very serious, especially with the possibility of a break up of ruling coalition and negative impact on Italian banks. Apart from softer EZ data, continuing divergence between ECB and Fed policies, Italians are resubmitting the budget to EU today. As the

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Mar 8, 2018 – Market Update (ECB bit hawkish, tomorrow’s US NFPs’ earnings bit weaker can push EURUSD above 1.2500; EURUSD weekly – a funny joke 1998-2000; Fed- 5 hikes in 2018?; S&P 500 still a bit rich but reasonably attractive; USD and US deficit correlating as before dot.com bubble; USD decline impacting reserve currency status; Aramco IPO going against OPEC?)

Mr Price Action/ March 8, 2018/ Market Update, Market Update Posts/ 0 comments

  Short recap Asia in green after strong US session yesterday On Trump softer on tariffs – but do not get mislead by risk on mood Europe opening flat to higher   ECB today likely to confirm a gradual shift But still not major change in wording Draghi to talk down any hawkish views despite strong EZ economy   Fed 4 hikes warranted, eventually

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Feb 9, 2018 – Market Update

Mr Price Action/ February 9, 2018/ Market Update, Market Update Posts/ 0 comments

  European equities seem to be in a quite and cautious mood today after yesterday’s red day. US futures are up a what gives additional comfort to the market is also the calm in FX. Bonds are getting slightly sold but yields are not moving very high. It is an interesting situation when stocks got sold off heavily over the

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Feb 6, 2018 – Market Update (No recession short-term, healthy correction done, no global contagion, so let’s hunt for bargains; One Fed hike is priced off; Watch today for Trys yields, JPY crosses, VIX; New turning points for VIX at 22 & 30; XIV a problem for Credit Suisse; BNSF Railway (part of Berkshire) joining Blockchain in Transport Alliance; Hedging by book: long gold, JPY, 10- and 30-yr Trys; The panic is over, moving to the last leg up of 2009 bull run; German coalition talks well covered blockchain)

Mr Price Action/ February 6, 2018/ Market Update, Market Update Posts/ 0 comments

  Short recap   Asia in red Europe opening lower US Congress to vote on government funding German coalition talks well covered blockchain technology to make Germany a fintech hub Draghi not ok with EUR volatility due to potential inflation miss Kuroda – no near-term hikes   Question – what now?   Honestly, I am not sure either… …as Janet is celebrating and Powell not being

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Feb 2, 2018 – Market Update (NFPs day but a high bar for USD to rise, Trys rising but where is the USD?, Rising yields challenging stocks (dividend/higher financing), Strong EUR to weight on EU stocks soon, Italy in or out?, eBay dumping PayPal and going for Adyen, Insurers to sell cryptos theft protection)

Mr Price Action/ February 2, 2018/ Market Update, Market Update Posts/ 0 comments

  Short recap   Asia lower Europe opening mixed Strong EUR to weigh on EU stocks soon 10-yr Trys yield above 2.75% putting pressure on stocks As dividend yield is not as attractive as before and cost of financing for companies is getting higher With recent rise in US yields, economic numbers and improving earnings season Are we going to

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Jan 25, 2018 – Market Update (Trump up, Mnuchin down but market is concerned about who will buy US debt; ECB – just up is a problem but Draghi likely not to say anything again); EURUSD set to check 1.2500; Weaker USD good for equities; Gold – make or brake the 1380, then 1484…?; BofA with most blockchain patents; Qualcomm fined USD 1.2 bln by EU; Mexican drug cartels stealing fuel)

Mr Price Action/ January 25, 2018/ Market Update, Market Update Posts/ 0 comments

  Short recap Asia mixed to lower Europe opening lower Trump a year ago – USD strength means confidence in US and his presidency Mnuchin yesterday – USD weakness good for US economy …and market took it as a future direction of US policy In other words the US trade war has begun and weak USD is part of it Market is concerned about widening current

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Jan 18, 2018 – Market Update (Apple with USD 38 bln tax bill, bringing home USD 250 bln; Renault-Nissan a king over Volkswagen; Goldman Sachs dropping bond trading?; GE still on short side; Junk bonds spreads at record lows, China/Japan getting rid of Trys – nothing new; USDRUB floor between 55.70-56.00; Brent having hard time to stay above USD 70 mark; Biggest Bitcoin mines in China)

Mr Price Action/ January 18, 2018/ Market Update, Market Update Posts/ 0 comments

  Short recap Asia hitting record levels Europe opening higher on bullish sentiment from US and Asia China growing too fast with respect to economic and pollution standards Trump fighting back China with intellectual property breaches (likely getting ready for Davos) Loud calls for EZ reform with new fiscal rules (GE) and joint safe assets (FR)   Equities Cyber security start-ups having hard time

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Jan 15, 2018 – Market Update (USD hit by non-US monetary tightening, No Bitcoin ETFs/mutual funds (for now), Bulls at extreme levels, SoftBank to list mobile biz, EUR longs up again, EURUSD to consolidate today, Gold to attack 2017 high at 1357, facing 1357-1375 range resistance)

Mr Price Action/ January 15, 2018/ Market Update, Market Update Posts/ 0 comments

  Short recap Asia in green Europe opening higher Trumps racist comments are dangerous in general And can also change the behaviour of the public Thus hurting the consumption habits, investments and economy FR and GE looking at EZ investment budget/reforms USD hit by markets pricing monetary policy tightening in other developed countries Bitcoin ETF Fast Track Derailed by SEC Liquidity, Safety Worries  link Applications for 12 ETFs and

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Jan 11, 2018 – Market Update (Cryptos getting hit in SoKo, Chinese like Trys anyway, 10-yr Trys yields holds above 2.50% despite China/BoJ, USDJPY looking towards 110.00 ?, VIX above 10 but still very low, Bayer hoarding cash by selling more Covestro, Aramco seeking cheap loans ahead of IPO, PIMCO to buy more Trys on recent weakness, SNB with profit of USD 55 bln)

Mr Price Action/ January 11, 2018/ Market Update, Market Update Posts/ 0 comments

Short recap Asian in red as stocks getting nervous, VIX above 10 Europe opening lower Cryptos – SoKo preparing a trading ban, tax authorities cracking on some exchanges China – halt of Trys buying based on wrong info (I like it as some made a nice money..) US attacking NAFTA, opting for more protectionism While French Macron signing nice contracts in China   Equities Volatility still remains low but that can change

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Dec 5, 2017 – Market Update (Brexit and US tax bill market movers, EU to review US tax bill and its implications, S&P 500 & DAX – what’s next?, Apple to start to paying back taxes to Ireland in Q1 2018 (EUR 13 bln), Toll Brothers facing lack of skilled labour – an issue for home builders across US)

Mr Price Action/ December 5, 2017/ Market Update, Market Update Posts/ 0 comments

  Short recap Asia took a break Europe opening flat to slightly up US tax bill refining continues as the bill moves from Senate to the House before it lands on Trump’s table Many have changed the wording from tax reform bill to tax bill AMT getting challenged as many companies may loose the tax break and pay the 20% alternative

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