This note is an addition to our earlier view available here. As the situation with Italian budget is getting very serious, especially with the possibility of a break up of ruling coalition and negative impact on Italian banks. Apart from softer EZ data, continuing divergence between ECB and Fed policies, Italians are resubmitting the budget to EU today. As the
Short recap Asia in green after strong US session yesterday On Trump softer on tariffs – but do not get mislead by risk on mood Europe opening flat to higher ECB today likely to confirm a gradual shift But still not major change in wording Draghi to talk down any hawkish views despite strong EZ economy Fed 4 hikes warranted, eventually
European equities seem to be in a quite and cautious mood today after yesterday’s red day. US futures are up a what gives additional comfort to the market is also the calm in FX. Bonds are getting slightly sold but yields are not moving very high. It is an interesting situation when stocks got sold off heavily over the
Short recap Asia in red Europe opening lower US Congress to vote on government funding German coalition talks well covered blockchain technology to make Germany a fintech hub Draghi not ok with EUR volatility due to potential inflation miss Kuroda – no near-term hikes Question – what now? Honestly, I am not sure either… …as Janet is celebrating and Powell not being
Short recap Asia lower Europe opening mixed Strong EUR to weigh on EU stocks soon 10-yr Trys yield above 2.75% putting pressure on stocks As dividend yield is not as attractive as before and cost of financing for companies is getting higher With recent rise in US yields, economic numbers and improving earnings season Are we going to
Short recap Asia mixed to lower Europe opening lower Trump a year ago – USD strength means confidence in US and his presidency Mnuchin yesterday – USD weakness good for US economy …and market took it as a future direction of US policy In other words the US trade war has begun and weak USD is part of it Market is concerned about widening current
Short recap Asia hitting record levels Europe opening higher on bullish sentiment from US and Asia China growing too fast with respect to economic and pollution standards Trump fighting back China with intellectual property breaches (likely getting ready for Davos) Loud calls for EZ reform with new fiscal rules (GE) and joint safe assets (FR) Equities Cyber security start-ups having hard time
Short recap Asia in green Europe opening higher Trumps racist comments are dangerous in general And can also change the behaviour of the public Thus hurting the consumption habits, investments and economy FR and GE looking at EZ investment budget/reforms USD hit by markets pricing monetary policy tightening in other developed countries Bitcoin ETF Fast Track Derailed by SEC Liquidity, Safety Worries link Applications for 12 ETFs and
Short recap Asian in red as stocks getting nervous, VIX above 10 Europe opening lower Cryptos – SoKo preparing a trading ban, tax authorities cracking on some exchanges China – halt of Trys buying based on wrong info (I like it as some made a nice money..) US attacking NAFTA, opting for more protectionism While French Macron signing nice contracts in China Equities Volatility still remains low but that can change
Short recap Asia took a break Europe opening flat to slightly up US tax bill refining continues as the bill moves from Senate to the House before it lands on Trump’s table Many have changed the wording from tax reform bill to tax bill AMT getting challenged as many companies may loose the tax break and pay the 20% alternative