Tag Archives: Draghi

Mar 8, 2018 – Market Update (ECB bit hawkish, tomorrow’s US NFPs’ earnings bit weaker can push EURUSD above 1.2500; EURUSD weekly – a funny joke 1998-2000; Fed- 5 hikes in 2018?; S&P 500 still a bit rich but reasonably attractive; USD and US deficit correlating as before dot.com bubble; USD decline impacting reserve currency status; Aramco IPO going against OPEC?)

Mr Price Action/ March 8, 2018/ Market Update, Market Update Posts/ 0 comments

  Short recap Asia in green after strong US session yesterday On Trump softer on tariffs – but do not get mislead by risk on mood Europe opening flat to higher   ECB today likely to confirm a gradual shift But still not major change in wording Draghi to talk down any hawkish views despite strong EZ economy   Fed 4 hikes warranted, eventually

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Jan 25, 2018 – Market Update (Trump up, Mnuchin down but market is concerned about who will buy US debt; ECB – just up is a problem but Draghi likely not to say anything again); EURUSD set to check 1.2500; Weaker USD good for equities; Gold – make or brake the 1380, then 1484…?; BofA with most blockchain patents; Qualcomm fined USD 1.2 bln by EU; Mexican drug cartels stealing fuel)

Mr Price Action/ January 25, 2018/ Market Update, Market Update Posts/ 0 comments

  Short recap Asia mixed to lower Europe opening lower Trump a year ago – USD strength means confidence in US and his presidency Mnuchin yesterday – USD weakness good for US economy …and market took it as a future direction of US policy In other words the US trade war has begun and weak USD is part of it Market is concerned about widening current

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Nov 20, 2017 – Market Update (No Jamaica in Germany, Leadership in EU on pause, Risk taking at record levels, Mugabe still in but already out, Norwegians not counting on oil/gas, EURUSD to keep hawkish tone above 1.1675-1700 zone, Gold to test medium-term resistance at 1306)

Mr Price Action/ November 20, 2017/ Market Update, Market Update Posts/ 0 comments

  Short recap Asia in red Europe opening lower No Jamaica coalition in Germany – Merkel can still form a minority government No history of minority government or new election creating more uncertainty Merkel to meet president, German leadership in EU on pause What worked in difficult 2000s and 2010s years not working anymore Pragmatism, conservativism and stability to be replaced Zimbabwe’s Mugabe not

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Oct 27, 2017 – Short recap after ECB (Trys yields up, Bund yields down, Draghi played dovish, EURUSD getting closer to important 1.1500, Are we going back to 1.0500/1.1500 range?, 1w RR favouring puts, USDJPY – spot lagging the move higher as the US yields steadily rise, Spot close to critical 115.00, 1w RR favouring further upside)

Mr Price Action/ October 27, 2017/ Market Update, Market Update Posts/ 0 comments

  Short recap after ECB…   Bonds   10-yr Trys yield at 2.46% up from 2.43% yesterday 10-yr Bund yield at 0.42% down from 0.48% yesterday   EURUSD   Draghi played it well as the whole picture looks more dovish than rising rates environment eslewhere After yesterday’s move on spot 1w RR favouring puts s Spported by longs liquidation as well as Draghi doesn’t

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Sep 15, 2017 – Market Update (US inflation surprise making Dec Fed hike a 50/50 game, Weidmann like Draghi…eyeing his job?, Oil above USD 50 a stability for US shale, GBPUSD up to 1.3500, but weak USD can push it to 1.4000 despite heavy short specs, Trump trade making US small caps rally)

Mr Price Action/ September 15, 2017/ Market Update, Market Update Posts/ 0 comments

  Short recap   Asian in red on NoKo playing with fire again but market corrected quickly Europe opening mixed ECB’s Weidmann out with comments like Draghi…getting ready for his job? Aug US inflation at 1.9%, core 1.7%, higher than expected Bringing Dec Fed hike to 50/50 probability But economists predict Fed pausing…   Equities   Rupert Murdoch’s takeover of Sky not a done deal yet

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Sep 8, 2017 – Market Update (North Korea/Irma – unhedged over the weekend?, Dovish Draghi but no indications, 10-yr Trys yield dipping below may bring more declines, EURUSD – 1.2000 a fair value, 1.2100 to hurt sentiment and DAX, Platina to catch up Gold rally, WTI at USD 55 unsustainable, BMW taking e-cars seriously, Amazon in a need of 2nd US HQ)

Mr Price Action/ September 8, 2017/ Market Update, Market Update Posts/ 0 comments

  Short recap   Asia in red Europe opening lower ECB kept its policy unchanged Draghi stayed dovish, has not offered any clear indication on what’s next Despite strong EUR pushing inflation lower and economy doing well Ifo head warning of next EZ crisis Market keeps testing upside in EURUSD North Korea (important public holiday 9.9. may be topped by another missile test) and Irma risks present – going unhedged to the

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Sep 5, 2017 – Market Update (Very quiet in the markets…, North Korea making a storm?, Cryptos hit with Bitcoin & Ethereum down, JPY not what it used to be against Gold, EURUSD ready to correct if Draghi impresses, United Technologies buying Rockwell Collins, Air Berlin keeps flying for now)

Mr Price Action/ September 5, 2017/ Market Update, Market Update Posts/ 0 comments

  Short recap   Asia in red Europe opening flat to slightly higher Very quiet in the markets… North Korea still an issue, preparing another launch before weekend (Sep 9 a holiday in NoKo) as it moves ICBM to the launch place BRICS meeting going on in China, but China not taking any actions against NoKo China the key player even if

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Sep 4, 2017 – Market Update (UN meeting on North Korea, Little risk in FX world warranted, EU/China economies to cool down, FiatChrysler declining and takeover offer, Merger completed, new DowDuPont is alive, Highly rated corporate bonds to benefit, Bund yields may go again to zero, EURUSD – Attempts above 1.2000 to hit the heavy resistance, USDJPY – ceiling at 110.00, Gold – eying 1375)

Mr Price Action/ September 4, 2017/ Market Update, Market Update Posts/ 0 comments

  Short recap   Asian in red on safe haven flow Europe opening lower US/CA Labor Day holiday today   UN Security Council to meet on North Korea US Secretary of Defence Mattis joining Trump in his rhetoric (not a good sign) Little risk in FX world warranted Despite North Korean likely not to escalate situation further as it hit the ceiling with

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July 19, 2017 – Market Update (Republicans (not only Trump) need to deliver, EURUSD capped by 1.1615 before ECB, BoJ-ECB divergence to deepen after tomorrow?, USDJPY – all above the yields, US corporate cash at USD 1.84 trln, Goldman Sachs to fix 40% dive in bond trading revenue, Lockheed Martin likes F-35 order log)

Mr Price Action/ July 19, 2017/ Market Update, Market Update Posts/ 0 comments

Short recap   Asia up Europe opening lower Republicans (not only Trump) need to deliver Tax reform is next (something Trump is more familiar with) Moody’s – US corporate cash at USD 1.84 trln, Tech is the leader   Equities   Porsche looking to give up on diesel engines Goldman Sachs to fix 40% dive in bond trading revenue But still lovely USD

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June 28, 2017 – Market Update (Draghi’s reflation & Yellen’s “no new financial crisis in our lifetime” words, Cyber attacks – a new era to come? Bonds, equities down – a new risk off combination? JPY a perfect summer carry trade)

Mr Price Action/ June 28, 2017/ Market Update, Market Update Posts/ 0 comments

  Short recap   Asia down inspired by US session after another delay of healthcare bill vote Europe opening lower World coping with another cyber attack – a new era to come? Draghi replaced deflationary forces by reflationary ones and pushed EUR higher Sounds like woo-doo to me when we talk about “forces”… But overall his speech was in line

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