Tag Archives: ecb

EURUSD – Might be under pressure on Italian budget crisis

Mr Hawk/ November 13, 2018/ Chart Of The Day, Charts Posts, Market Update, Market Update Posts/ 0 comments

This note is an addition to our earlier view available here. As the situation with Italian budget is getting very serious, especially with the possibility of a break up of ruling coalition and negative impact on Italian banks. Apart from softer EZ data, continuing divergence between ECB and Fed policies, Italians are resubmitting the budget to EU today. As the

Read More

Mar 8, 2018 – Market Update (ECB bit hawkish, tomorrow’s US NFPs’ earnings bit weaker can push EURUSD above 1.2500; EURUSD weekly – a funny joke 1998-2000; Fed- 5 hikes in 2018?; S&P 500 still a bit rich but reasonably attractive; USD and US deficit correlating as before dot.com bubble; USD decline impacting reserve currency status; Aramco IPO going against OPEC?)

Mr Price Action/ March 8, 2018/ Market Update, Market Update Posts/ 0 comments

  Short recap Asia in green after strong US session yesterday On Trump softer on tariffs – but do not get mislead by risk on mood Europe opening flat to higher   ECB today likely to confirm a gradual shift But still not major change in wording Draghi to talk down any hawkish views despite strong EZ economy   Fed 4 hikes warranted, eventually

Read More

Jan 25, 2018 – Market Update (Trump up, Mnuchin down but market is concerned about who will buy US debt; ECB – just up is a problem but Draghi likely not to say anything again); EURUSD set to check 1.2500; Weaker USD good for equities; Gold – make or brake the 1380, then 1484…?; BofA with most blockchain patents; Qualcomm fined USD 1.2 bln by EU; Mexican drug cartels stealing fuel)

Mr Price Action/ January 25, 2018/ Market Update, Market Update Posts/ 0 comments

  Short recap Asia mixed to lower Europe opening lower Trump a year ago – USD strength means confidence in US and his presidency Mnuchin yesterday – USD weakness good for US economy …and market took it as a future direction of US policy In other words the US trade war has begun and weak USD is part of it Market is concerned about widening current

Read More

Nov 24, 2017 – Market Update (Quiet unless…, Chinese stocks steady after two day selloff, Saudis opening local stock market for small foreign funds, May in Brussels at Brexit grilling party, Ireland to veto border but government may collapse first, Flying lifts from Thyssenkrupp, USDJPY through 111.00 towards 110.00 or back to 112.50?, GBPUSD hitting the resistance at 1.3335)

Mr Price Action/ November 24, 2017/ Market Update, Market Update Posts/ 0 comments

  Short recap Asian with wake up call from China Europe opening flat to higher FOMC and ECB Minutes left the market without any illusions Fed likely to be more dovish, ECB still on split over QE end Germany – Socialists under strong pressure to form government France – US corporates like Macron story, likely to increase investments in FR Brexit – May meeting Tusk in

Read More

Nov 9, 2017 – Market Update (Brexit saga continues – EU giving UK 2-3 weeks to come up with something, GE signing deals (USD 3.5 bln) in China Marks & Spencer speeding up stores closures on weak sales, 10-yr Trys yield key levels 2.27% & 2.50% to show DXY direction, EURUSD cluelessly waiting for US yields and stocks, Offshore investor flows into Japanese stocks continue)

Mr Price Action/ November 9, 2017/ Market Update, Market Update Posts/ 0 comments

  Short recap   Asia up Europe opening higher US tax reform in place likely in 2019 on respecting proper budget rules TPP – 11 countries at the table and discussing UAE investigating financial transactions/assets of 19 Saudis at its banks Brexit saga – EU giving UK 2-3 weeks to bring the bill otherwise not able to prepare for Dec

Read More

Nov 8, 2017 – Market Update (EURUSD – H&S almost done, US yields not supporting further USD strength – a correction coming?, Oil – China demand lower on pollution cuts, Gold stuck in 1263-1282 range, ECB Governing Council meeting – watch the comments as more hawks on the Board, Apple – EU asked for more details about tax structure, Bitcoin an asset class?)

Mr Price Action/ November 8, 2017/ Market Update, Market Update Posts/ 0 comments

    Short recap   Asia up Europe opening lower Trump in China to ask for China cutting financial ties with NoKo US-Chinese companies signed USD 9 bln deals USD impacted by headwinds/slowdown related to tax reform (implementation in 2019) As the tax cuts will spike the budget deficit and will have only temporary effect on the economy (according to Fitch) Brexit –

Read More

Oct 27, 2017 – Short recap after ECB (Trys yields up, Bund yields down, Draghi played dovish, EURUSD getting closer to important 1.1500, Are we going back to 1.0500/1.1500 range?, 1w RR favouring puts, USDJPY – spot lagging the move higher as the US yields steadily rise, Spot close to critical 115.00, 1w RR favouring further upside)

Mr Price Action/ October 27, 2017/ Market Update, Market Update Posts/ 0 comments

  Short recap after ECB…   Bonds   10-yr Trys yield at 2.46% up from 2.43% yesterday 10-yr Bund yield at 0.42% down from 0.48% yesterday   EURUSD   Draghi played it well as the whole picture looks more dovish than rising rates environment eslewhere After yesterday’s move on spot 1w RR favouring puts s Spported by longs liquidation as well as Draghi doesn’t

Read More

Oct 26, 2017 – Market Update (ECB day today but should they do anything?, Turkish CB in the spotlight too, EURUSD range 1.1660-1.1860/1.1900+, Airbus-Bombardier deal a China story?, Brazil yields up on elections risk, VIX to loo for too long – recall the Aug 2015 China blow…)

Mr Price Action/ October 26, 2017/ Market Update, Market Update Posts/ 0 comments

  Short recap   Asia flat Europe opening flat China going for USD denominated bonds again (first issue from 2004) ECB day today – lots of uncertainties around QE cut back (low inflation, strong EUR vs growing economy) Still not clear whether ECB should do it today or not A Turkish Central Bank announcement important today As there are speculations about Germany (EU) to

Read More

Oct 16, 2017 – Market Update (May urgently in Brussels ahead of EU Summit, Austrian elections outcome a non event as no exit EU talk, ECB’s QE limit at 2.5 trln?, Aramco’s private shares sale instead of IPO, Volkswagen short of cobalt supplies, Tech to benefit from corporate spending but position adjustments imminent, USDJPY weekly – not great for bulls but DXY holding above lows may give a hand)

Mr Price Action/ October 16, 2017/ Market Update, Market Update Posts/ 0 comments

  Short recap   Asia up Europe opening higher Governor of PBOC Zhou bullish on Chinese economy ahead of Congress Austria turning populist to far right but no exit EU talk To challenge Macron’s view of more Europe, tough on immigration…etc. Catalonia ready for talks with Spain but no mentioning of declaration of independence Iraqi military in control of Kurdish oil fields ECB’s QE limited at EUR

Read More

Oct 6, 2017 – Market Update (Biz moving out making Catalonian politicians to think twice as Quebec is a nice example, NFPs & DXY – Good number Ok, bad number…because of hurricanes…as simple as that, EURUSD watching 1.1662 & 1.1615/05, USDJPY ready to test 113.25 & 113.37, Republicans moving on taxes, Fed warning of inflation/debt)

Mr Price Action/ October 6, 2017/ Market Update, Market Update Posts/ 0 comments

  Short recap   Asia up, inspired by US stocks printing new highs on tax reform hopes EU opening higher Republicans moving on taxes, Fed warning of inflation and unsustainable debt IMF still supports accommodative policy from ECB, BoJ Italian CB asking ECB to soften bad-loan plans ECB to put legal restrictions on ICOs Bitcoin may fall to their jurisdiction anyway But ICOs is a more securities area than

Read More